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Two Basic Rules of Probability Worksheet

The Multiplication Rule: $P(A \cap B) = P(A) \cdot P(B|A)$.

The Addition Rule: $P(A \cup B) = P(A)+P(B)-P(A \cap B)$.

























Example: Felicity attends Southwestern Oregon Community College.

The probability that Felicity enrolls in a math class is $0.20.$ Call this event $M.$

The probability that she enrolls in a writing class is $0.64.$ Call this event $W.$

The probability that she enrolls in a writing class GIVEN that she enrolls in a math class is $0.28.$

Find the following probabilities: $P(M \cap W)$, $P(M \cup W)$, and $P(M|W).$

$$ \begin{array}{lll} \displaystyle P(M \cap W)&\displaystyle=P(M)\cdot P(W|M) &\mbox{by the Multiplication Rule}\\ \displaystyle &\displaystyle=0.20\cdot 0.28 &\mbox{}\\ \displaystyle &\displaystyle=0.056 &\mbox{}\\ \end{array} $$

$$ \begin{array}{lll} \displaystyle P(M \cup W)&\displaystyle=P(M)+P(W)-P(M \cap W) &\mbox{by the Addition Rule}\\ \displaystyle &\displaystyle=0.20+0.64-0.056 &\mbox{from given info and previous calculation}\\ \displaystyle &\displaystyle=0.784 &\mbox{}\\ \end{array} $$

$$ \begin{array}{lll} \displaystyle P(M|W)&\displaystyle=\frac{P(M \cap W)}{P(W)} &\mbox{definition of conditional probability}\\ \displaystyle &\displaystyle=\frac{0.056}{0.064} &\mbox{from given info and previous calculation}\\ \displaystyle &\displaystyle=0.875 &\mbox{}\\ \end{array} $$



























Some Background: The Multiplication Rule $$P(A \cap B) = P(A)\cdot P(B|A)$$ Notice that this is simply a rearrangement of our definition of conditional probability of the event $B$ given $A$. $$\displaystyle P(B|A)=\frac{P(B \cap A)}{P(A)}.$$

























Also Notice: if $A$ and $B$ are independent events that $$P(A \cap B) = P(A)\cdot P(B|A)=P(A) \cdot P(B)$$ since $\displaystyle P(B|A)=P(B)$ by definition.

























Some Background: The Addition Rule $$P(A \cup B) = P(A)+P(B)-P(A \cap B)$$


























Also Notice: if $A$ and $B$ are mutually exclusive events that $$P(A \cup B) = P(A)+P(B)-P(A \cap B)=P(A)+P(B)$$ since $\displaystyle P(A \cap B)=0$ by definition.

























Another Example

A school has $200$ seniors of whom $120$ will be going to college next year.

Another $40$ will be going directly to work.

The remainder are taking a gap year.

Of the seniors going to college, $60$ play sports.

Of the seniors going directly to work, $20$ play sports.

Of the seniors taking a gap year, $3$ play sports.

What is the probability that a randomly chosen senior is taking a gap year or plays sports?

We organize the given information into a contingency table. $$ \begin{array}{c|c|c|c|c} &\mbox{College}&\mbox{Work}&\mbox{Gap}&\\\hline \mbox{Sports}&\color{magenta}{60}&\color{magenta}{20}&\color{magenta}{3}&\\\hline \mbox{No Sports}&&&&\\\hline \mbox{}&\color{magenta}{120}&\color{magenta}{40}&&\color{magenta}{200}\\ \end{array} $$ We now fill in the rest of the table. $$ \begin{array}{c|c|c|c|c} &\mbox{College}&\mbox{Work}&\mbox{Gap}&\\\hline \mbox{Sports}&\color{magenta}{60}&\color{magenta}{20}&\color{magenta}{3}&83\\\hline \mbox{No Sports}&60&20&37&117\\\hline \mbox{}&\color{magenta}{120}&\color{magenta}{40}&40&\color{magenta}{200}\\ \end{array} $$ Letting $G$ be the event "taking gap year" and $S$ the event "plays sports," we may now compute the probability of of "taking gap year OR plays sports." $$ \begin{array}{lll} \displaystyle P(G\cup S)&\displaystyle= P(G)+P(S)-P(G\cap S)&\mbox{using the addition rule}\\ \displaystyle &\displaystyle=\frac{40}{200}+\frac{83}{200}-\frac{3}{200} &\mbox{}\\ \displaystyle &\displaystyle=\frac{120}{200}&\mbox{}\\ \displaystyle &\displaystyle=0.60&\mbox{}\\ \end{array} $$